Google

The “North Star” Shift: Google’s Quiet Pivot to the Pentagon

The “North Star” Shift: Google’s Quiet Pivot to the Pentagon

Google DeepMind VP Tom Lue confirms the company is “leaning into” military contracts after scrubbing anti-weapons pledges from its 2025 AI principles.

For years, Google’s relationship with the military was a source of internal shame. The company effectively pinky-swore to avoid “weapons of war” after the 2018 Project Maven protests. But that era of Silicon Valley pacifism is officially over.

At a recent town hall, Google DeepMind VP Tom Lue dropped the pretense.

He reminded employees that the company’s AI principles were quietly updated in 2025, scrubbed of specific pledges against surveillance and weapons development. The new metric for taking a government contract is now remarkably flexible: whether the “benefits substantially exceed the risks.”

It isn’t just a change in wording; it is a change in the company’s soul.

While rivals like Anthropic are currently tied up in federal court for refusing to drop ethical “red lines” regarding autonomous weaponry, Google is leaning in. DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis even noted he is “very comfortable”- working with democratic governments is a path to global safety.

The logic is simple.

The Pentagon is currently rolling out “Gemini for Government” to three million personnel, and Google wants a seat at that table. By framing the work as “administrative” or “clerical,” Google provides itself a layer of plausible deniability. Yet, the removal of the surveillance ban suggests the ceiling for this partnership is much higher than a glorified secretary.

Google’s “North Star” used to be its “Don’t Be Evil” manifesto.

Now, it mimics a calculated cost-benefit analysis. As the line between civilian tech and national security blurs, Google has decided that being a “supply chain risk” is a far greater danger to its bottom line than a few disgruntled employees.

Retail Media Trends

5 Retail Media Trends that Could Make-or-Break the Industry

5 Retail Media Trends that Could Make-or-Break the Industry

Beyond the standard AI and measurement buzz, discover the hidden shifts in agentic commerce and data licensing that will redefine retail media winners in 2026.

Retail media has spent the last two years graduating from a nice-to-have budget line into something brands treat as a core performance channel. The money reflects it.

US retail media ad spend is projected to reach $69 billion in 2026- up from $60 billion in 2025. Europe grew 22% year over year, compared to an overall 6% for total ad spend. The market is not slowing down.

With growth like that comes a lot of trend pieces. Most of them are saying the same things: the measurement is broken, off-site is growing, AI is everywhere, and in-store is finally catching up, many of which are already shaping the future of retail media. All true. All is already on your radar.

This piece covers those, but it also decodes the trends those pieces are quietly skipping. The ones that will matter more by Q4 than anything currently getting the headline inches.

The Retail Media Trends Everyone Is Covering

A. Measurement is still the industry’s biggest unsolved problem

Every retail media trends piece leads with this. With good reason, because it’s still not fixed.

Each network runs its own attribution model, conversion definition, and reporting format, making standardization across retail media networks increasingly complex. A brand buying on Amazon, Walmart, and three regional grocery networks simultaneously is reconciling five different methodologies to answer one question: which of these is actually working?

36% of marketers say difficulty proving incrementality is the main reason they would pull back overall retail media spend.

Did the campaign drive new sales, or did it intercept purchases that would have occurred anyway? Most networks cannot answer that question cleanly.

The IAB has pushed for standardization.

Individual networks have their own incentives to keep their methodology proprietary. Progress is happening, but it is slow, and in the meantime, brands are making budget allocation decisions on incomplete information.

B. Off-Site Is Where the Growth Is

The ceiling on on-site sponsored listings is visible. Only so many slots on a search results page, and as more brands bid for them, CPCs climb and efficiency drops.

The growth move is off-site: leveraging the retailer’s first-party shopper data to reach those same shoppers on external publisher inventory, CTV, programmatic display, and social as part of broader cross-media ad strategies. The data travels without the real estate having to be owned.

Amazon DSP advertisers grew their spend 31% year over year in Q4 2025 as impressions climbed 32%. Over 60% of Walmart’s self-serve display spend now goes to off-site inventory.

The shift is already well underway.

C. In-store is finally getting serious infrastructure

80% of consumer spending happens in physical stores. Until recently, nearly all retail media advertising was digital-only. That gap made no business sense, and it is closing.

Digital endcap screens, checkout lane displays, and programmatic digital out-of-home tied to loyalty data are becoming foundational components of modern retail media advertising and adtech companies. In-store retail media is getting real infrastructure behind it. And what matters most is that in-store placements can now be tied to purchase data, as digital placements can.

Closed-loop attribution at the shelf is no longer a future roadmap item.

D. AI in campaign management

Dynamic creative optimization, predictive audience targeting, automated bidding, and real-time personalization are being accelerated by advances in artificial intelligence and adjacent technologies like deepfake technology. AI is layering into every part of retail media operations.

The more interesting AI story, though, is not in the ad tech stack. It’s what AI is about to do to the shopper side. More on that shortly.

The Trends Most Pieces Are Not Covering

1. Agentic Commerce Is the Threat Nobody Wants to Talk About Directly

AI shopping agents are already in early deployment. Tools that browse, compare, and purchase on a user’s behalf, surfacing a ranked shortlist of products rather than a full search results page.

Here’s why retail media has a problem with this.

Retail media is built on the premise that a shopper is browsing, searching, scrolling, and encountering a sponsored placement at the moment of consideration. An AI agent does not browse. It does not scroll. It processes inputs and returns a recommendation. The sponsored listing that sits at the top of a human’s search results page may not exist in an agent’s output at all.

Nobody has a clean answer to this yet.

The honest position is that if AI agents become a meaningful percentage of shoppers who discover and purchase products, the economics of on-site retail media change significantly.

The networks that are building for that scenario now, rather than waiting to see if it scales, are the ones that will not be caught unprepared. especially as retail media networks in 2026 continue to evolve

Google’s Universal Commerce Protocol, developed with Walmart and other major retailers, is an early sign that the industry knows this is coming. It is designed to let AI agents handle discovery and checkout while keeping retailers as the merchant of record.

This framing matters: it is a defensive move dressed up as an innovation announcement.

2. The Revenue Versus Volume Disconnect Brands Are Not Talking About

Something interesting is happening across CPG brands running retail media at scale. Revenue numbers look healthy. Volume numbers are not keeping up.

The interpretation that is skipped in most trend pieces: retail media is increasingly effective at capturing existing demand and intercepting high-intent buyers who were already purchasing. What it is less good at is building the kind of upper-funnel awareness that creates new demand and grows category volume.

Brands are spending on retail media, seeing revenue, and quietly watching their total volume base not grow predictably. The media mix model says one thing.

The quarterly volume report says another. And because legacy MMMs were built for quarterly analysis in a market that shifts week to week, by the time the insight surfaces, the budget window has already closed.

The The brands that crack this in 2026 will be the ones treating retail media as a full-funnel channel, not a lower-funnel capture tool, aligning it with a more structured media buying process, and building the measurement infrastructure to tell the difference in real-time rather than in the next planning cycle.

3. Store Mode in Retailer Apps Is the Most Underrated Inventory in Retail Media

The in-store trend gets covered as endcap screens and digital signage. That framing misses the more interesting development.

Retailer apps running in store mode are turning the shopper’s phone into the most responsive inventory in the building, similar to how social media marketing transformed real-time engagement. Real-time offers triggered by aisle location. Scan-and-go integrations that know what’s in the basket as it’s being built.

Navigation that surfaces a sponsored alternative one shelf over from where the shopper is standing.

That is not a future capability.

Walmart, Kroger, and Target have active store mode features in their apps. The brands running sponsored placements inside those experiences are getting a context that no other format can replicate: the shopper is physically in the store, the product is within arm’s reach, and the ad serves at the exact moment the purchase decision is made.

Most retail media budget allocation conversations do not include this inventory. They will.

4. The Creative Problem Nobody Is Counting as a Trend

Measurement gets every hot take. Creative gets almost none. That is backwards.

Most retail media creative is still built to a format spec sheet: fit the dimensions, meet the file size, include the logo. The strategy ends there. And then brands spend significant money running ads that function as digital wallpaper because the creative was never built for the context in which it runs.

Sponsored product on Amazon does not require the same creative thinking as a CTV spot running against a shopper who bought from the brand twice in the last ninety days. An off-site programmatic placement targeting lapsed buyers demands different messaging than an on-site placement competing for a new customer mid-search. These are different conversations.

Most brands have one conversation across all of them, missing opportunities to tailor messaging the way effective social media branding demands.

Retail media networks running purpose-built creative designed for specific placements and shopper contexts consistently outperform generic assets. The performance gap is not marginal.

Brands treating creative as an afterthought in their retail media strategy are underperforming on their own media spend.

The networks that start functioning as creative partners, helping brands build assets that belong in each format and context, will pull advertiser spend from those handing over an ad server and label it a service, similar to how strong b2b media partnerships drive long-term value.

5. Non-Advertising Revenue Is Becoming Bigger Than the Ad Business

Most retail media coverage focuses on ad spend. The more significant long-term development is what sits next to it.

Retailers are learning that their data is worth more as a licensed asset than it is as a targeting tool for their own ad inventory. Data licensing to brands, strategic research partnerships, and insights feeds that help manufacturers understand their own category dynamics at the retail level. These are not advertising products. They are intelligence products.

IAB Europe projects that by 2026, over 60% of retail media network revenue growth will come from non-advertising services, including data licensing and strategic brand collaborations. The ad business funded the data infrastructure.

The data infrastructure is now its own business.

The retailers building toward this are thinking about their networks differently than the ones still treating retail media purely as an ad monetization play, reflecting a shift across the broader retail media ecosystem, as explained. One group is building a media business. The other is building a data and intelligence business that has media on top.

The Through-Line Across All of the Retail Media Trends

Retail media in 2026 is not one channel maturing. It entails several distinct capabilities, some well understood, some still being figured out, all moving at different speeds within organizations that were not originally built to run them.

The brands getting strong returns share one characteristic: they are treating retail media as a strategic function that requires its own thinking, its own creative, its own measurement framework, and its own seat at the planning table.

The ones struggling are the ones who handed the login to a junior team member and asked them to manage the sponsored products budget.

Both groups are spending. Only one of them knows what they are buying.

Commerce Media vs Retail Media

Commerce Media vs Retail Media: The 2026 Strategic Blueprint

Commerce Media vs Retail Media: The 2026 Strategic Blueprint

As the lines between commerce media vs retail media blur, modern brand ad budgets are undergoing some massive shifts.

The digital ad ecosystem has hit a wall. Thinking that search and social are the primary pillars of your budget means you’re already behind the curve. The industry is today pivoting its capital back to a transactional bend in the road.

It isn’t merely a trend like most shifts. It’s actually a structural collapse of the traditional methodologies. And that makes understanding the friction between commerce vs retail media imperative, especially as the retail media ecosystem explained continues to evolve beyond third-party cookies.

Because the retail media scene has always remained a walled garden, largely defined by how retail media networks operate within their own environments. It’s a straightforward, lower-funnel play where you purchase sponsored slots on Amazon or Walmart to snag a prospect already looking for your solution.

The rules have changed in 2026.

Commerce media has taken that holy grail of transaction datasets and weaponized it across the entire internet, accelerating the broader future of retail media. And that distinction is currently redrawing the lines between brand power and financial accountability.

What Precisely is Retail Media?

Retail media is the modern equivalent of an end-cap display in a grocery store. These are the ads living directly on a retailer’s own “owned and operated” digital properties. Whether it’s a sponsored product listing on the Target app or a banner on the Kroger website, these placements target shoppers who’re ready to invest and showcase high intent.

That’s the magic of this model: closed-loop attribution. Because the retailer owns the search bar, the ad slot, and the checkout button, there’s zero guesswork.

This clarity is why retail media spend is projected to surpass $200 billion by 2027, overtaking traditional TV ad spend and reinforcing the rise of retail media advertising and adtech companies.

First-Party Data as a Weapon

The reason retail networks are so dominant isn’t just because of where the ads are- it’s because of what they know.

Retailers possess a type of deterministic truth.

They aren’t guessing your demographic; they see your receipts. As global privacy regulations such as the GDPR and CCPA have effectively blinded traditional ad platforms, the first-party data stored by retailers has become the only reliable currency.

Advertisers aren’t purchasing impressions but verified, intent-driven purchase history.

A Brief Insight into Commerce Media

If you imagine retail media as a “walled garden,” think of commerce media as the “open web” evolution. It takes that same high-quality retailer data and follows the customer wherever they go- whether that’s a news site, a social media feed, or a streaming app.

Commerce media in 2026 means off-site activation, a core component of modern cross-media ad strategies. This is where the real growth is happening.

Brands are no longer content waiting for the shopper to show up at Amazon. They instead leverage Amazon’s data to find that shopper while they are reading an article on The New York Times or scrolling through TikTok.

The Surge of Non-Endemic Brands

A massive shift in 2026 is the rise of non-endemic advertisers. Your history shows you only bought retail media if you sold products at that retailer. And now insurance companies, banks, and travel agencies are the biggest spenders on retail data.

Why?

Because a car insurance company wants to talk to someone who just bought a car seat at Walmart. A travel agency wants to reach someone who just bought a suitcase at Macy’s.

Commerce media helps these non-retail brands tap into life-stage triggers that only transactional history can reveal, similar to how strategic b2b media partnerships unlock new growth opportunities.

The 2026 Tech Stack: Breaking the Silos Between Commerce vs Retail Media

The biggest headache for CMOs in 2026 is fragmentation, especially when managing campaigns across multiple retail media networks in 2026. And truthfully, there are way too many RMNs- making campaign management across Amazon, Walmart, Instacart, and 20 other niche retailers an operational nightmare.

The solution to this?

The industry has pivoted toward unified DSPs, streamlining the overall media buying process across platforms. These tools help manage multi-retailer campaigns from a nucleus-like dashboard, standardizing metrics such that an impression at one store means the same thing at another.

A. Data Clean Rooms

You cannot mention commerce media without talking about Data Clean Rooms (DCRs) in 2026. These are secure environments where a brand and a retailer match their datasets without actually sharing raw customer data.

Think: a CPG brand that has its own loyalty data.

They bring that data into a Snowflake or Habu clean room, match it against a retailer’s sales data, and find the missing customers. It allows for hyper-personalized targeting while keeping the lawyers happy.

What are you doing if you aren’t using a DCR in 2026? Your targeting is essentially a shot in the dark.

B. The New CFO Mandate

ROAS is a vanity metric that is slowly dying in 2026.

CFOs have realized that traditional ROAS often takes credit for sales that would have happened anyway. If a customer was going to buy your laundry detergent regardless of the ad? That media spend was wasted.

The new “North Star” is incrementality testing.

This methodology involves rigorous “test vs. control” groups. Brands serve ads to one group while withholding them from another- measuring the lift in sales between the two. It’s the only way to prove that the media actually caused the sale.

If you can’t prove incrementality, you don’t get the budget.

C. Agentic AI

The most disruptive force in 2026 is agentic AI.

Autonomous AI agents are now shopping on behalf of your buyers, reflecting the growing role of artificial intelligence in commerce and marketing. These agents (such as Amazon’s Rufus or Walmart’s Sparky) don’t care about glossy banner ads. All they need is structured data.

If your product information isn’t machine-readable, you are invisible to the market. That has forced commerce media to evolve into a data-feed game.

Hence, rather than bidding on keywords, advertisers are optimizing their APIs. That’s to ensure that their brand is the only one the machine surfaces when an AI agent asks for “the best eco-friendly detergent with 2-day shipping.”

D. Digitizing the Physical Store

75-85% of global transactions still occur in physical brick-and-mortar stores despite the e-commerce surge. And the physical store today has become the most valuable “media channel” in existence.

Retailers are aggressively pivoting towards DOOH screens, interactive end-caps, and smart carts that recognize your order. These in-store screens usually connect to the same programmatic pipes as digital ads.

That creates a Phygital loop, blending online and offline engagement much like evolving social media marketing practices. You see an ad on your phone in the morning => the digital screen at the grocery store reminds you of the offer while you are in the aisle.

Building a Unified 2026 Strategy

The winning suggestion? Brands must stop viewing commerce media vs retail media as separate buckets. They are parts of a single, full-funnel apparatus.

  1. Retail Media: Protect your “digital shelf” and capture existing demand.
  2. Commerce Media: Obtain market share by finding new customers on the open web using retail data.
  3. In-Store Media: Digital screens to influence the last mile of the physical purchase.

Organizational Restructuring

Savvy marketers have already dismantled the wall between their brand-building and e-commerce teams, aligning efforts similarly to how to build b2b media partnerships for sustained growth. These departments have merged into a singular commerce division.

You can’t have two different teams fighting over the same budget when the consumer journey is this integrated. Your media must be as fluid as the buyer’s behavior.

Comparison at a Glance: Commerce Media vs Retail Media

Commerce Media vs Retail Media

To help your team understand the shift, use the following framework to allocate your 2026 Q3 and Q4 budgets.

A Commerce-First Era

The era of awareness for awareness’ sake is over.

Every dollar spent in 2026 must tie to a transaction signal. The blurring of commerce media vs retail media is the final stage of this evolution within the broader retail media ecosystem, as explained. Retailers have become media companies, and media companies have become storefronts.

Brands that master the data clean room, lean into incrementality, and optimize for AI agents will own the next decade.

But those that cling to the old silos of search and social? They will find themselves priced out of the market by competitors who actually know their customers.

Even TSMC is Hitting Its Capacity Limits- Something the Market Could Have Easily Defined as Infinite

Even TSMC is Hitting Its Capacity Limits- Something the Market Could Have Easily Defined as Infinite

Even TSMC is Hitting Its Capacity Limits- Something the Market Could Have Easily Defined as Infinite

The AI boom is creating a domino effect. And with big tech locking up foundry capacities for at least 3 years, the lag seems permanent for the smaller players.

Reuters reports that even TSMC, the major producer of AI chips, is reaching its capacity limits with numerous supply chain constraints expected for the rest of the year. And honestly, the production limit isn’t about to increase any time soon, but a slight probability in 2027.

That will delay AI chip deliveries. But that’s a repercussion we all saw coming.

What’s more significant is how this scrunching of production capacity is impacting the rest of the market. Blame the boom in AI infrastructure because it’s not merely soaking up your memory but also your electricity flow.

In short, it’s resulting in a bottleneck migration- kind of a knock-off effect.

Suppliers are definitely prioritizing AI because of their billions of dollars worth of commitment to big tech companies. We’ve all seen it- the news headlines about the supercycle of huge investments by tech giants to ensure a constant supply of AI infrastructure and chips.

TSMC losing out on capacity isn’t a temporary demand swing. It’s that- the domino of bottlenecks.

The spearheaded focus on AI has pushed for an overwhelming demand for high-quality processors and memory. But then that pushed aside the common processors manufactured for consumer goods.

The traditional manufacturing capacity is sure to take the most brunt. You name it- packaging to raw material shortage, there’s a bunch of supplier constraints that aren’t even named. One of them is a warm shell shortage- it’s an expected crisis where AI firms have the chips but can’t power them. Hardware is sitting idle in warehouses in this case due to an electricity shortage.

As the demand for AI seems not to be taking a backseat, the problem will persist. It’s not a passing swing. It’s a structural imbalance, and TSMC’s production lapse just became the most crystal-clear proof of it.

AGI

Was All the Discussion on AGI Part of a Broader Industry Pattern? Jensen Huang Weighs In

Was All the Discussion on AGI Part of a Broader Industry Pattern? Jensen Huang Weighs In

Are we actually close to cracking AGI, or is that only a fantasy world that tech enthusiasts continue to expend billions into? Jensen Huang has an opinion.

NVIDIA’s CEO believes that they have “sort of” achieved AGI. You know, the tech dream- Artificial General Intelligence, AI that is on par with the human brain.

The claim.

It’s quite a recent but bold claim that Huang’s making. On the Lex Fridman Podcast, he states, “I think it’s now. I think we’ve achieved AGI,” in response to whether AI will finally come to match or surpass human-level intelligence.

Note: To offer readers context, Fridman frames AGI as an AI system capable of building and running a billion-dollar company.

However, what’s surprising isn’t the topic of AGI.

The “backtracking.”

It’s that Huang didn’t wait long before walking his claim back in the same conversation. He highlighted that Fridman was talking about running a $1 billion company, but he didn’t specify for how long. And with that, NVIDIA’s CEO elaborates that it’s not out of the question that someday Claude could create a web service or interesting app that a few billion people use briefly for $0.50 before it goes out of business.

He further comments, “A lot of people use it for a couple of months, and it kind of dies away,” saying the odds of AI agents “building NVIDIA is 0%.”

That sounds less like a backtrack and more like a sleight of hand. Because if AI can spin up, go through this entire cycle, and end up producing $1 billion in revenue even once? That reframes AGI, not as a durable future, but as a short-term commercial flash.

And that’s not what the tech leaders or investors thought AGI was ever about.

The market opinion and critics.

The opinions on AI aren’t in sync with the direction of the actual spending on AI infrastructure. Could it be that building a narrative around ‘imminent’ AGI will help justify all the ‘enthusiastic’ resource allocation? Well, all that depends on how you define imminent.

But all of this is also part of a well-known industry pattern. Huang called it a commercial flash; Altman says they’re very close to it, while Nadella disagrees that we could even imagine what AGI would be like at this point in time.

In short, Huang definitely agrees with Fridman’s narrow, commercially defined benchmark for AGI.

Maybe the chip leader realized mid-conversation that the current AI can’t sustain the kind of complex, stable institution that NVIDIA represents. So, how can we even assume we’re close to achieving AGI?

Retail Media Ecosystem Explained

The Retail Media Ecosystem Explained: Components, Players, and Why Everyone Wants In

The Retail Media Ecosystem Explained: Components, Players, and Why Everyone Wants In

Most explainers on retail media describe what it is and call it a day. This one goes further: who’s actually in the room, what each player wants, and why the whole thing works when it works.

Retail media is one of those terms that gets thrown around in planning meetings by people who have slightly different definitions of it in their heads and nobody stops to compare notes.

So before the strategy conversation: what is it, who builds it, who buys it, and what does each party actually get out of it.

The short version

A retailer has customers. Those customers have purchase histories, browsing behavior, basket data, loyalty card activity. That data is valuable, extremely valuable, to the brands whose products those customers buy or might buy.

Retail media is the business of a retailer monetizing that data, a model that sits at the core of modern retail media advertising and adtech evolution, by selling advertising to brands, letting them target those customers with ads that appear across the retailer’s owned properties and increasingly across external channels too.

Amazon built the template. Now 277 retailers globally are running some version of the same model, forming a rapidly expanding landscape of retail media networks.

The global retail media market hit $140 billion in 2024, reflecting the accelerating future of retail media. It’s projected to reach $165 billion by the end of 2026. For context, it’s growing faster than the total digital ad market and is on track to account for a quarter of all US ad spend by 2028.

That’s the short version. Now for the parts that actually matter.

The components: what the ecosystem is actually made of

Retail media is actually made

On-site inventory

This is where most people’s mental image often shaped by early exposure to retail media network platforms. of retail media begins and ends. Sponsored product listings on Amazon. Promoted placements on Walmart’s search results. Banner ads on a retailer’s homepage.

On-site is the foundation because it captures buyers at the sharpest point of intent: they’re already on the platform, already searching the category, already in purchase mode. The brand pays to show up at the exact right moment.

Sponsored product ads alone are projected to account for $38 billion in advertiser spend in 2026. For most brands, it’s the entry point into retail media and often the highest-performing format in the mix.

The limitation is ceiling. On-site inventory is finite. There are only so many sponsored slots on a search results page, and as more brands compete for them, CPCs rise and efficiency tightens.

Off-site inventory

This is where the ecosystem opened up. The data doesn’t have to stay on the retailer’s platform.

Off-site retail media uses a retailer’s first-party shopper data, extending into environments similar to modern social media marketing ecosystems. to target those same shoppers on external publisher sites, social platforms, programmatic display, and connected TV. The retailer’s audience, everywhere else they go online.

It’s why Amazon DSP is a meaningful product independent of Amazon’s own pages. It’s why Walmart Connect can reach Walmart shoppers on third-party inventory. The data travels; the real estate doesn’t have to be owned.

Over 20% of US retail media spend now goes to off-site channels, aligning closely with cross-media advertising strategies. Amazon DSP advertisers grew spend 31% year over year in Q4 2025 as impressions climbed 32%.

In-store

The most underinvested component for most brands, despite its importance in the evolving future of retail media networks. and the one catching up fastest.

Digital screens at the endcap. Checkout lane displays. Store-mode features in retailer apps that serve offers based on what’s physically around the shopper. Audio in the aisles. Scan-and-go integrations that serve a competing brand’s ad the moment you scan their competitor into your basket.

80% of consumer spending still happens in physical stores. The retail media ecosystem is finally building the infrastructure to monetize that attention the same way it monetizes digital.

The data and measurement layer

This is the component that makes the whole thing worth anything: closed-loop measurement.

A brand runs a sponsored product campaign. A customer clicks, or doesn’t. A purchase happens, or doesn’t. The retailer knows, because the purchase happens on their platform or through their loyalty system. The attribution loop closes.

No other advertising channel has this by default. Google knows if someone clicked. It doesn’t know if they then went and bought the product in-store three days later. Retail media does, or can, which is why the ROI case for brands is structurally stronger than almost anything else in the media mix.

The catch: every retailer runs their own attribution model, their own definition of conversion, their own reporting format. Comparing ROAS across four different networks is still a manual exercise that requires reconciling fundamentally different methodologies. It’s the biggest infrastructure problem in the space.

The players: who is actually in this ecosystem

Who Is Actually in This Ecosystem

The retailers

The retailers are the asset owners. They have the data, the inventory, and the customer relationships.

Amazon sits at the top with $60 billion in ad revenue in 2025 and roughly 75% of the US retail media market by some measures. Walmart Connect is the fastest-growing major network. Target’s Roundel, Kroger Precision Marketing, CVS Media Exchange, Instacart Ads, Home Depot’s Orange Apron Media, each one is a distinct network with its own audience, its own data set, and its own ad tech stack.

What’s changing in 2026 is the mid-market. Smaller retailers who can’t build proprietary ad tech are licensing Amazon’s Retail Ad Service or partnering with platform providers to stand up competitive networks. The ecosystem is decentralizing faster than most brands have adjusted for.

The brands and advertisers

For brands, retail media sits at an awkward intersection similar to how budgets are split across B2B media partnerships and digital channels. of trade marketing and brand marketing budgets. Historically, money spent at the retailer level came from trade. But off-site CTV campaigns using Kroger data? That’s a brand media buy.

Most large CPG brands now allocate 39% of total advertising spend to retail media. The ones getting strong returns are running it as a performance channel with real incrementality testing, not just renewing sponsored product budgets because they always have.

The ones getting mediocre returns are treating the network’s self-serve dashboard as the strategy.

The technology layer

Behind every retailer’s network is an ad tech stack similar to infrastructures discussed in retail media adtech ecosystems, demand-side platforms, supply-side platforms, data clean rooms, measurement and attribution tools, and creative optimization systems.

Some retailers built their own. Most are assembling from vendors: The Trade Desk, LiveRamp, Epsilon, Criteo, CitrusAd, Quotient. Data clean rooms have become the infrastructure, especially as privacy concerns grow alongside synthetic media and deepfake technologies. for brands and retailers to collaborate on audience data without the retailer handing over raw customer records, which they won’t and legally often can’t.

Only 12% of commerce media decision-makers describe themselves as having reached an advanced state with full-funnel capabilities across on-site, off-site, and in-store. The tech exists. The integration is the hard part.

The agencies

Agencies occupy an awkward position as responsibilities overlap with modern media buying processes. in the retail media ecosystem. Retail media buying historically happened through retail or shopper marketing teams. Digital media buying happened through media agencies. They were separate workflows with separate briefs and separate relationships.

Retail media collapsed that division. requiring integration similar to cross-media ad strategies. A brand now needs someone who understands Amazon’s auction mechanics, Walmart’s audience segments, programmatic DSP buying, and CTV creative requirements, simultaneously. The agencies that built that capability are worth a lot right now. The ones that haven’t are billing for it anyway.

The benefits: what each player actually gets

What Each Player Actually Gets 2

For retailers: the margin business they always needed

Core retail is a margin-thin business. making diversification into retail media advertising models essential. Grocery runs at 1% to 3% net margin on a good year. Retail media generates 50% to 70% operating margins on ad revenue.

That’s not a side business. For retailers operating at scale, media revenue is becoming a meaningful offset to the structural cost pressures in their core operations. Walmart’s media and data business is a strategic asset in a way their apparel category will never be.

For brands: the data they can’t get anywhere else

What brands are actually buying are often tied closely to data-driven lead generation services. When they buy retail media, it is not impressions. It’s access to purchase data.

Behavioral targeting on social is based on inference: this person liked three fitness posts, so they might buy protein supplements. Retail media targeting is based on purchase history: this person bought protein supplements from this retailer twice in the last 60 days. One is a guess. The other is a record.

For brands trying to reach buyers at the moment of highest commercial intent, and measure whether the ad actually drove a sale, retail media is the sharpest tool available.

For the shopper: relevance instead of noise

This one gets skipped in most ecosystem explainers, but it matters.

When retail media works as it should, similar to effective social media marketing strategies. the shopper sees ads for products genuinely relevant to what they buy, when they’re already thinking about buying. That’s a different experience from a retargeted ad following someone around the internet for a product they bought three weeks ago.

The ecosystem earns consumer tolerance by being useful. The moment it tips into surveillance-feeling or repetitive, that tolerance disappears fast.

Where the ecosystem goes from here

The three pressure points that will shape retail media through 2026 and beyond are measurement standardization, off-site scale, and consolidation.

Three pressure point shaping the ecosystem

Measurement first. The IAB has pushed for standards. Individual networks have their own incentives to keep methodologies proprietary. Until a brand can compare incremental ROAS across Amazon, Walmart, and Kroger in a consistent format, the budget allocation decisions happening inside brands will keep being made on incomplete information.

Off-site second. The ceiling on on-site inventory is real. The networks that figure out how to extend their first-party data into premium off-site environments, CTV especially, will hold advertiser budgets through the next phase. The ones that stay purely on-site will commoditize.

Consolidation third. 277 retail media networks is not a stable number. Most of them lack the scale, the data infrastructure, and the advertiser relationships to compete long term. The market will concentrate. The question is whether it concentrates around retailers or around the ad tech layer that retailers increasingly depend on.

The ecosystem is not finished being built. That’s either a problem or an opportunity, depending entirely on which side of the budget you’re sitting on.