Meta’s Avocado, the AI model, is facing a huge obstacle, and so is the strategic planning around it.
The company has delayed the release of its new AI model, internally code-named Avocado, to at least May, after the model fell short in performance compared to its rivals.
The delay is embarrassing on its own. But the context makes it worse.
In January, Meta committed to capital spending of between $115 billion and $135 billion this year, explicitly framing it as a pursuit of superintelligence. That is a staggering number.
Avocado was supposed to be the first visible proof that the investment was paying off. Instead, it is sitting on the shelf.
The performance gap is telling.
Avocado’s performance levels land somewhere between Google’s Gemini 2.5 and Gemini 3. While it isn’t a catastrophic result, it’s not a frontier result either- especially given that Meta has been loudly positioning itself as an AI leader. So, landing in the middle of the pack is a strategic embarrassment for the company.
Meta’s AI leadership even floated the idea of temporarily licensing Gemini to power its own products while Avocado catches up, though no decision has been reached. If that comes to pass, it would be a remarkable admission of where things stand.
There is a reasonable case for the delay.
Shipping an underperforming model under pressure would damage Meta’s credibility. The company understands the gap.
A Meta spokesperson acknowledged the next model might not be groundbreaking. But it would be a draft to demonstrate the pace of improvement the company expects to sustain in 2026. That’s measured, honest framing. Whether investors accept it is another matter.
But there’s a broader, structural challenge.
Meta is competing against Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic- all of whom are iterating rapidly. Massive capital investment does not automatically translate into model quality. Research talent, training infrastructure, and evaluation discipline matter just as much. Throwing money at the problem has limits.
Avocado will launch eventually. The real question is whether Meta can close the gap before the gap becomes the story.
